The Potential Economic Impact of Guinea-Race Sorghum Hybrids in Mali: A Comparison of Research ...

Alpha Kergna, Melinda Smale, Amidou Assima, Abdoulaye Diallo, Eva Weltzien, and Fred Rattunde. 2016. The Potential Economic Impact of Guinea-Race Sorghum Hybrids in Mali: A Comparison of Research and Development Paradigms. Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy Research Paper 23. East Lansing: Michigan State University

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

... In this study, we assess the potential economic impact of the first, Guinea-race sorghum hybrids produced and diffused using the new research and development paradigm (PPB-F), comparing it to what would have been achieved through the earlier approach (PPB-S). To incorporate risk into our analysis, we augment the economic surplus model by applying Monte Carlo sampling to simulate distributions of model parameters. Thus, rather than provide a single estimate of the total economic surplus, net present value, and internal rate of return, the analysis generates a range of estimated values, their minima, maxima, means and modes. We then explore which factors most influence variation in economic returns; these lend insights for policy.

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